2024 FIDE World Chess Championship

[towforce]

The best odds at https://www.oddschecker.com/chess/world ... hip/winner are Gukesh 1.44, Ding 3.15 (always set odds to show in decimal format: it's better than fractional format in multiple ways).

1/1.44 + 1/3.15 = 1.0119047619

So there's a 1.2% bookies margin. Get rid of that to get the probability for each player. To do that, multipy each probability by x (unknown at this stage) to get to 1 (Ding + Gukesh probabilities must sum to 1).

Ding * x + Gukesh * x = 1

x * (Ding + Gukesh) = 1

x = 1 / (Ding + Gukesh)

x = 1 / 1.0119047619

x = 0.98823529412

Actual Ding Probability (ADP) = (1/3.15) * 0.98823529412 = 0.31372549019 (31%)

Actual Gukesh Probability (AGK) = (1/1.44) * 0.98823529412 = 0.6862745098 (69%)

Is the algebra correct?

0.31372549019 + 0.6862745098 = 1.

Of course the algebra's correct!

[towforce]

Odds exactly the same as yesterday - link.

Ding tempting at 3.15: Mohammed Ali famously said that it wasn't the punches landed against you that drain you - it's the punches you land that don't hurt your opponent.

Put it another way: in a motor race, on "nearly but not quite" overtaking an opponent multiple times, a driver gradually becomes more and more reckless in his attempts, until going a little too far and throwing the car off the track.

[towforce]

One VERY good thing about this format: this 40 moves in 2 hours format with no extra time until that time control is reached is giving us day after day of absolute cliff hangers!

[towforce]

Good draw for Ding today: he neutralised Gukesh's Catalan ideas.

https://www.oddschecker.com/chess/world ... hip/winner

At time of writing, there's free money to be made!

Gukesh: 1.5
Ding: 3.15

(1/1.5) + (1/3.15) = 0.984 which is less than 100%, so the bookies' margin is negative!

If you bet the right amount to win £101 on each player, it will cost you less than £100 to make £101.

[Chris Formula]

still deadlock and hoping for some fireworks in this match. to make championship matches more exciting in the future and more relatable to the modern era, maybe it's time for FIDE to look at a "hybrid" format wherein the contenders are allowed to consult a chess engine of their choice once in a while (e.g. every 10th move) during the game. to preserve "fairness", the engines could be run on the same hardware configuration.

[Graham Banks]

still deadlock and hoping for some fireworks in this match. to make championship matches more exciting in the future and more relatable to the modern era, maybe it's time for FIDE to look at a "hybrid" format wherein the contenders are allowed to consult a chess engine of their choice once in a while (e.g. every 10th move) during the game. to preserve "fairness", the engines could be run on the same hardware configuration.

From what I've read, most have found this match quite absorbing and certainly not boring.

[towforce]

From what I've read, most have found this match quite absorbing and certainly not boring.

+1

Leaving aside the Netflix "Queen's Gambit" drama (a huge success - but not something real), who'd have guessed that the most exciting chess event of the 21st century would be an out-of-form Chinese holder of the title against an 18 year old Indian challenger at classical time controls? Or that Gukesh, in playing the match, could teach us all a valuable behaviour that we can use in our everyday lives - his "focus flow" technique (closing his eyes to improve his calculation)?

[chesskobra]

...
https://www.oddschecker.com/chess/world ... hip/winner

At time of writing, there's free money to be made!

Gukesh: 1.5
Ding: 3.15

(1/1.5) + (1/3.15) = 0.984 which is less than 100%, so the bookies' margin is negative!

If you bet the right amount to win £101 on each player, it will cost you less than £100 to make £101.

I could not find the above numbers (or any updated numbers in the above format) at the link. But my interpretation of the numbers is that if you bet 1 unit on Gukesh, and if he wins, then the bookie will pay you 1.5, and similarly for Ding. (I would like to know if the numbers mean something else.) I don' t know if it is possible to bet some amount on each player with the same bookie. But I find it easier to think this way - Let us say you decide to bet x on Gukesh and y on Ding. Then you want 1.5x > x+y and 3.15y > x+y, then you will always gain some money and the bookie will lose provided there is a solution to the above inequalities (and for the above numbers there is). But I doubt any bookie would offer such bets.

[towforce]

...
https://www.oddschecker.com/chess/world ... hip/winner

At time of writing, there's free money to be made!

Gukesh: 1.5
Ding: 3.15

(1/1.5) + (1/3.15) = 0.984 which is less than 100%, so the bookies' margin is negative!

If you bet the right amount to win £101 on each player, it will cost you less than £100 to make £101.

I could not find the above numbers (or any updated numbers in the above format) at the link...

To my amazement, the market hasn't corrected itself, and those odds are still there! Incorrect market prices normally correct very quickly.

I did not provide enough details though.

1. Open the link

2. Click the "Odds" button on the top bar of that page

3. Change the odds format from "Fractional" to "Decimal"

If you wish to make a free £1.60, do the following:

1. Put £67.33 on Gukesh at 1.5 (if he wins, you'll get £101 (67.33 * 1.5))

2. Put £32.06 on Ding at 3.15 (if he wins, you'll get £101 (32.06 * 3.15))

3. Whomever wins, you'll obtain £101

4. You will only have staked 67.33 + 32.06 = £99.39 - FREE MONEY!!!

At time of writing, Bet365 and William Hill are offering 1.5 on Gukesh, and Unibet and Bet MGM are offering 3.15 on Ding at the above link.

[Chris Formula]

the next 4 games (if needed) will be more exciting (i hope).